It’s So Hard to Say Goodbye (To Yesterday)
Well, it’s over.
Finally.
At 78-84, the Reds are officially better than last year (by four wins). Good for them.
Where I live it’s called ”improvement,” but is anyone really encouraged by this?
Other than Dusty Baker, I mean:
“The magic number is 75 wins, and while that may not seem like much, it is one more win than we had last year and you always need to have a goal.”
— Dusty Baker
Wow.
Seriously… wow!
I’m struggling to figure out how to react to this late-season “resurgence” by our beloved Reds.
On one hand you have to (yes, you HAVE to) take into consideration that most of this resurgence has taken place during August and September, against (mostly) teams that are either:
- Out of the race and/or playing a bunch of scrubs
- Already locked up a playoff spot
- Were never very good to begin with
On the other hand, the team the Reds are fielding during this resurgence is pretty close to what we’re going to see on the field in 2010.
Do I think the 2010 Reds are going to be this good? Good enough to go on 23-12 streaks in June and July, not late August and September? Probably not. Do I think the 2010 Reds are better than the first-half 2009 Sucky Reds? Absolutely.
So, where does that leave us?
Well, it leaves us somewhere in between. It leaves us with about a .500 team — maybe slightly over .500 — in 2010 (assuming the pitching holds up, which is never a safe assumption).
And there lies the problem:
When you start basing your season on assumptions, you’re basically saying, “if everything goes as planned.”
Everything never goes as planned.
And even though I’m happy about the departure of Dick Pole, it remains to be seen what impact his absence will have on the Reds in 2010 and beyond. One can hope that it can only have a positive impact.
I should probably point out that asking Dave Duncan to be the new pitching coach could be, uh… awkward.
I’m sure a lot of you are encouraged by some of the things you’ve seen these last six weeks (count me as one of them).
Drew Stubbs, Joey Votto, Jonny Gomes, Juan Francisco, and yes, even Homer Bailey — it sure beats the crap out of Willy Patterson, Darnell McDonald, Micah Owings, etc.
But let’s not forget what the Reds had to do to improve on last year’s record. They only played like an above-.500 team for about six or seven weeks this season. The rest of the season they were average to poor.
Some may argue that the late-season surge shows that the Reds are above average and ready to compete in 2010. I’ll say (again) that the surge came at a time of the season when most teams are making vacation, not baseball plans for October.
Finishing close to .500 at the end of a season because of a late-season hot-streak is much different than a team playing average ball most of the season, but does it really matter how they get their record if they don’t make the post-season?
And let’s face it, if the 2010 Reds play average ball most of the season, they’re not going to the playoffs. Again.
I guess what I’m saying is that I have no idea what to expect next season, therefore I’ll continue to keep my expectations low and hope to be pleasantly surprised.
We’re Cincinnati Reds fans. That’s what we do.
Couldn’t agree more, hope…it’s all reds fan’s have;the only thing that is argueable is that ALL teams must have things go as planned to be sucessful.Look at the Mets for example,they were the only team with more players on the DL this year than the reds,and they were much further away from their “plan” than the reds were from their’s.
So I’ll agree if we assume Bruce, Bailey,Ceuto,improve,we get a run-producing left-fielder,Harang returns to 07 08 form we have no major injuries;I think we can compete in the anemic NL central.
GO REDS!!!!!!
It’s all conjecture, sure. But I’m more hopeful after this great finish than I have been in a few years. Will Clark be damned, Joey Votto is a baseball hero. Phillips had a fantastic May and September, with some average and below-average in between. He obviously needs to keep it up all year, because he should be a perennial all-star.
I’d like to see Gomes improve himself over the winter and take Left Field. With Stubbs in Center and Bruce in Right, the outfield is underwhelming. Our infield is a collective…dare I say it…machine! Much improvement is needed with pitching. With Pole in the vaults, I expect to see immediate improvement.
Why was Poole let go? The pitching staff has done well compared to the hitting and the hitting coach is back? Also, why let Poole go if Duncan isn’t your target? Sign him and his son.
What was the one thing the Reds had going for them in 2009? Their pitching staff. For most of the season the starting pitching was average, and someone has to take the fall for that.
Then again, who gets the credit for Arroyo’s strong second half, or the resurgence of Homer Bailey?
Someone had to go, and while I would argue that Jacoby deserved to go more than Pole, I’m not going to argue with the decision. My only complaint was the part that said, “the rest of the coaching staff will remain.”
You’re right, if you don’t go after Dave Duncan, then why fire Pole? I don’t keep track of hot-commodity pitching coaches, but Duncan seems to be the best choice.