Well, it’s over.

Finally.

At 78-84, the Reds are officially better than last year (by four wins).  Good for them.

Where I live it’s called ”improvement,”  but is anyone really encouraged by this?

Other than Dusty Baker, I mean:

“The magic number is 75 wins, and while that may not seem like much, it is one more win than we had last year and you always need to have a goal.”

— Dusty Baker

Wow.

Seriously… wow!

I’m struggling to figure out how to react to this late-season “resurgence” by our beloved Reds.

On one hand you have to (yes, you HAVE to) take into consideration that most of this resurgence has taken place during August and September, against (mostly) teams that are either:

• Out of the race and/or playing a bunch of scrubs
• Already locked up a playoff spot
• Were never very good to begin with

On the other hand, the team the Reds are fielding during this resurgence is pretty close to what we’re going to see on the field in 2010.

Do I think the 2010 Reds are going to be this good?  Good enough to go on 23-12 streaks in June and July, not late August and September?  Probably not.  Do I think the 2010 Reds are better than the first-half 2009 Sucky Reds?  Absolutely.

So, where does that leave us?

Well, it leaves us somewhere in between.  It leaves us with about a .500 team — maybe slightly over .500 —  in 2010 (assuming the pitching holds up, which is never a safe assumption).

And there lies the problem:

When you start basing your season on assumptions, you’re basically saying, “if everything goes as planned.”

Everything never goes as planned.

And even though I’m happy about the departure of Dick Pole, it remains to be seen what impact his absence will have on the Reds in 2010 and beyond.  One can hope that it can only have a positive impact.

I should probably point out that asking Dave Duncan to be the new pitching coach could be, uh… awkward.

I’m sure a lot of you are encouraged by some of the things you’ve seen these last six weeks (count me as one of them).

Drew Stubbs, Joey Votto, Jonny Gomes, Juan Francisco, and yes, even Homer Bailey — it sure beats the crap out of Willy Patterson, Darnell McDonald, Micah Owings, etc.

But let’s not forget what the Reds had to do to improve on last year’s record. They only played like an above-.500 team for about six or seven weeks this season. The rest of the season they were average to poor.

Some may argue that the late-season surge shows that the Reds are above average and ready to compete in 2010.  I’ll say (again) that the surge came at a time of the season when most teams are making vacation, not baseball plans for October.

Finishing close to .500 at the end of a season because of a late-season hot-streak is much different than a team playing average ball most of the season, but does it really matter how they get their record if they don’t make the post-season?

And let’s face it, if the 2010 Reds play average ball most of the season, they’re not going to the playoffs.  Again.

I guess what I’m saying is that I have no idea what to expect next season, therefore I’ll continue to keep my expectations low and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

We’re Cincinnati Reds fans.  That’s what we do.

GO REDS!